水利水电工程施工投标决策研究

招标投标制作为市场经济的制度，在世界上已经持续了一百多年，在中国也有十几年的历史，相对于其它领域来说，在这一领域的研究较少。因此，对招标投标理论及其应用进行研究具有重要的理论意义和实际价值。

本文首先阐述了招标投标的国内外发展现状，通过对现状的研究，预测了招标投标的发展趋势，指出在市场经济条件下，招标承包制作为竞争的基本手段势在必行。然后，本文从业主倾向技术实力、价格因素、标书编制质量、竞争对手的状况、承包商的财务状况和情感因素等方面分析了影响中标率的主要因素，通过对这些因素的研究，结合作者从事多年招标投标工作经验的积累，提出了要提高中标率竞争者应研究和考虑的问题，并给出了相应参考答案。

由于通常的预测方法在作投标报价的预测时具有局限性，同时影响报价的许多因素是定性因素，具有模糊性，难以定量地对其做出分析。为了科学化、定量化研究提高中标率的问题，探讨了灰色系统理论和模糊综合评判理论，并把它作为建立投标预测模型的理论基础和设计思想。根据竞争对手与我方以往报价的对比分析，然后运用灰色预测法对竞争对手的报价进行初步预测，并进行了误差检验；对影响报价的定性因素，确定其权重，采用专家调查表的方式，运用模糊评判法确定出各投标单位在这些因素上的优劣性，并进行综合排序，最后根据定性分析结果及专家调查法的结果，对初预测值进行修正，确定出最后预测值。

本文不仅建立了投标报价预测模型，还用实例检验了预测模型的实用性。作者以期通过此课题的研究，帮助承包商在进行投标时提高中标率，为商务活动提供有效的决策支持。

关键词：水利水电工程 投标 策略 灰色系统 评判 三峡船闸

Abstract
Public bidding system, as the system of market economy, has already lasted more than 100 years in the world, and has a history of more than ten years in China. As to other fields, there is less research in this one. Therefore, studying bid theory and application has important theory meaning and real value.

This dissertation explains the domestic and international current situation of the development of bid at first, predicts the development trend of bid through the study on current situation, and points out that the bid contract system is imperative as the competition basic means under the market economy condition. Then this dissertation analyses the main factor of influencing the winning a bid rate from the respects, such as the owner is inclined to technological strength, price factor, quality that the tender is worked out, rival's state, contractor's financial situation and emotion factor, etc. Through the study on these factors, combining the accumulation of the author's bidding working experience for many years, it proposes the problems which competitors should study and consider of improving winning a bid rate, and provides the corresponding reference answers.

Because the common prediction method has limitation while making prediction offered to submit a tender, and a lot of factors influencing quoting are qualitative, which are fuzzy, it is difficult to make analysis quantitatively. In order to study the problem of improving the winning a bid rate scientifically and quantitatively, this dissertation probes into the grey system theory and fuzzy synthetical evaluation theory, which are regarded as the theoretical foundation and design philosophy of setting up the model of predicting bid. Comparing and analysing the rival's past quotation with ours, it predicts to the rival's quotation tentatively using grey predict principle, and checks up the error; confirms the weight of qualitative factors of influencing quote, and adopting expert's questionnaire, using fuzzy evaluation principle to determine quality of every bid unit on these factors and arrange synthetically in an order; finally, according to the results of qualitative analysis and expert's questionnaire, revises the initial predicted value and determines the last predicted value.

This dissertation not only set up the predicting model of bidding quote but also checked up the practicability of the model with the instance.The author expects to help the contractor to improve the winning a bid rate through the research of this subject and offer effective decision support for commercial activity.

Key Words: water conservancy and hydroelectric project, bid, strategy, grey system, evaluation, lock of Three Gorges

1 绪 论

1.1 引言

竞争是市场机制的要素之一，发展社会主义市场经济，必须充分发挥竞争的功能与作用。市场竞争，作为一种社会经济现象和经济关系，它同商品生产和商品交换相联系，是市场经济运行的基本要素。市场竞争，是指市场经济条件下各经济利益主体之间，为获得更多的市场占有份额、市场信息、技术等，在价格、销售策略和其他方面所进行的抗衡和争斗。

目前，国内外水利水电工程施工都以招投标制度进行承包商的选择、设备的采购等，根据竞争的淘汰、激励和调节三个基本功能来看，承包商要在激烈的市场竞争中不被淘汰，或者说取得胜利，就必须研究招标投标的理论与实践。需对工程建设的投标进行正确的决策和策略进行研究。

1.2 招标投标的国内外发展状况

1.2.1 招标投标的历史
招标投标制存在已经有一百多年的历史，最早起源于英国，作为“公共采购”或“集中购买”的手段出现。在西方国家购买市场上可划分为“公共市场”和“私人市场”两种。“公共市场”是由国家政府部门、学校、医院、军队、慈善机构等买主构成，购买的目的是直接使用而不是求利润。“私人市场”则是由企业商界组成，购买后加工或者转卖而取得利润。“公共市场”采购，由于开支来源于税收，必须对公众负责，所以政府和公用事业部门有义务保证自己的购买行为的合理、有效，需要最大限度的透明、公开，以便于公众监督。公开招标最能满足这些要求，这种形式就应运而生了。

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